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Course of the first month of the COVID 19 outbreak in the New York State counties

Anca Rǎdulescu1

  • 1Mathematics, SUNY New Paltz, New Paltz, NY, United States of America.

Plos One
|September 3, 2020
PubMed

Insights

New York State infection reports in March may have significantly undercounted cases. Analysis of trends and public health measures suggests under-representation, supported by later serological studies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Understanding infection dynamics is crucial for public health.
  • Accurate case reporting is essential for effective policy-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the evolution of reported infections in New York State during March.
  • To identify correlations between infection trends and public health mandates.
  • To assess the accuracy of reported infection numbers.

Main Methods:

  • Statistical analysis of reported infection data by county and statewide.
  • Identification of piecewise exponential trends in infection rates.
  • Correlation analysis between trend dynamics and mandated testing/social distancing measures.

Main Results:

  • Piecewise exponential trends in infection evolution were identified across New York State.
  • Potential under-representation of actual infections in early reports (e.g., April 1st) was indicated.
  • Findings align with subsequent serological study estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Early infection reports may not reflect the true scale of the outbreak.
  • Public health measures' impact on infection dynamics requires ongoing monitoring.
  • Further research is needed to refine estimates and understand reopening effects.

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