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A single nucleotide polymorphism or SNP is a single nucleotide variation at a specific genomic position in a large population. It is the most prevalent type of sequence variation found in the human genome. Point mutations that occur in more than 1% of the population qualify as SNPs. These are present once every 1000 nucleotides on an average in the human genome. Replacement of a purine with another purine (A/G) or a pyrimidine with another pyrimidine (C/T) is known as a transition. In contrast,...
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Variation and multilevel selection of SARS-CoV-2.

Neil W Blackstone1, Sarah R Blackstone2, Anne T Berg3

  • 1Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois, 60115.

Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
|September 4, 2020
PubMed
Summary

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) is influenced by pathogen and host-level selection. Understanding transmission dynamics is key to predicting strain virulence and guiding public health strategies for this virus.

Keywords:
Coronavirusepidemiologylevels of selectiontransmission dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • The evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 is not fully understood.
  • Theoretical models propose two levels of selection: individual pathogen and within-host pathogen group.
  • Rapid viral replication is favored, but excessive virulence can lead to host demise before transmission, creating a trade-off.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 based on theoretical predictions.
  • To investigate the relationship between transmission rates and pathogen virulence.
  • To inform public health strategies regarding SARS-CoV-2 strain variation.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical modeling of pathogen evolution in a group-structured population.
  • Analysis of existing data on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and severity.
  • Consideration of epidemiological factors such as population density and founder effects.

Main Results:

  • High population density and rapid transmission may favor more pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 strains.
  • Slower transmission dynamics could select for less pathogenic strains.
  • Strain variation may impact vaccine efficacy and therapeutic resistance.

Conclusions:

  • SARS-CoV-2 evolution appears to align with theoretical predictions of virulence-transmission trade-offs.
  • Public health interventions, including testing and contact tracing, may need to consider symptom severity and transmission potential.
  • Understanding strain diversity is crucial for effective pandemic response and vaccine development.