A multivariate model of time to conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease

The present study was aimed at determining which combination of demographic, genetic, cognitive, neurophysiological, and neuroanatomical factors may predict differences in time to progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). To this end, a sample of 121 MCIs was followed up during a 5-year period. According to their clinical outcome, MCIs were divided into two subgroups: (i) the "progressive" MCI group (n = 46; mean time to progression 17 ± 9.73 months) and (ii) the "stable" MCI group (n = 75; mean time of follow-up 31.37 ± 14.58 months). Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were applied to explore each variable's relationship with the progression to AD. Once potential predictors were detected, Cox regression analyses were utilized to calculate a parsimonious model to estimate differences in time to progression. The final model included three variables (in order of relevance): left parahippocampal volume (corrected by intracranial volume, LP_ ICV), delayed recall (DR), and left inferior occipital lobe individual alpha peak frequency (LIOL_IAPF). Those MCIs with LP_ICV volume, DR score, and LIOL_IAPF value lower than the defined cutoff had 6 times, 5.5 times, and 3 times higher risk of progression to AD, respectively. Besides, when the categories of the three variables were "unfavorable" (i.e., values below the cutoff), 100% of cases progressed to AD at the end of follow-up. Our results highlighted the relevance of neurophysiological markers as predictors of conversion (LIOL_IAPF) and the importance of multivariate models that combine markers of different nature to predict time to progression from MCI to dementia.