Systematic errors in connectivity inferred from activity in strongly recurrent networks

Understanding the mechanisms of neural computation and learning will require knowledge of the underlying circuitry. Because it is difficult to directly measure the wiring diagrams of neural circuits, there has long been an interest in estimating them algorithmically from multicell activity recordings. We show that even sophisticated methods, applied to unlimited data from every cell in the circuit, are biased toward inferring connections between unconnected but highly correlated neurons. This failure to 'explain away' connections occurs when there is a mismatch between the true network dynamics and the model used for inference, which is inevitable when modeling the real world. Thus, causal inference suffers when variables are highly correlated, and activity-based estimates of connectivity should be treated with special caution in strongly connected networks. Finally, performing inference on the activity of circuits pushed far out of equilibrium by a simple low-dimensional suppressive drive might ameliorate inference bias.