Development and Verification of a Body Weight-Directed Disease Trial Model for Glucose Homeostasis

Weight loss has been associated with improvement in insulin sensitivity. It is consequently a cornerstone in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the strictly quantitative relationship between weight loss, insulin sensitivity, and clinically relevant glucose homeostasis biomarkers as well as changes therein as T2DM progresses is not yet fully understood. Therefore, the objective of our research was to establish a body weight-directed disease trial model for glucose homeostasis. To that end, we conducted a model-based meta-analysis using time course data of body weight loss (following lifestyle change or surgical procedure) and corresponding improvement of insulin sensitivity expressed as the Matsuda index. Changes in body weight were best described by a sigmoidal E_max model, whereas changes in the Matsuda index were best described by a linear model with a slope of 3.49. Once developed and verified, the model-based meta-analysis was linked to a disease-drug trial model for T2DM previously developed by our group to characterize and predict the impact of weight loss on clinically relevant glucose homeostasis biomarkers. The joint model was then used to conduct clinical trial simulations, which showed that weight loss can greatly improve clinically relevant glucose homeostasis biomarkers in T2DM patients.