Spatial structure in protected forest-grassland mosaics: Exploring futures under climate change

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Conservation Science
• Spatial Modeling
• Climate Change Impacts

Background:

• Mosaic ecosystems, like forest-grassland systems, are vital for biodiversity but threatened by human activities and climate change.
• Existing spatial models often lack the detail to predict mosaic dynamics under future climate scenarios.
• Preserving these valuable mosaics requires understanding their response to environmental shifts and disturbances.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a spatially explicit simulation model for forest-grassland mosaics in Southern Brazil.
• To investigate how climate change and disturbance regimes alter the spatial structure of these ecosystems.
• To assess the vulnerability of forest-grassland mosaics and inform conservation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Construction of a spatially explicit simulation model incorporating local interactions and fire-mediated forest recruitment.
• Parameterization of the model for a specific region (Southern Brazil).
• Simulation of mosaic responses to various climate change (e.g., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and 2.6) and disturbance scenarios.

Main Results:

• The model successfully reproduced key spatial features of real-world mosaics, including patch number and forest cover.
• Concurrent environmental changes had a greater impact on tree cover and spatial structure than single changes, indicating mosaic vulnerability.
• Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, significant increases in forest cover are predicted, potentially leading to mosaic loss and structural alterations.

Conclusions:

• Forest-grassland mosaics are sensitive to climate change and disturbances, with a narrow range of conditions supporting their persistence.
• Future climate change, particularly under high emissions (RCP 8.5), is likely to drive substantial increases in forest cover and alter mosaic structure.
• The developed model can aid conservation planning by identifying future suitable areas for forest-grassland mosaics and informing protected area designation.