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Updated: Dec 9, 2025

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations
Published on: February 3, 2023
The evolutionary dynamics of expectations: Interactions among codes in inter-human communications.
Loet Leydesdorff1, Franz Hoegl2
1University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR), PO Box 15793, 1001 NG, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Social logic of expectations, termed double contingency, drives cultural evolution. Communication codes act as "genotypes," evolving and creating new options for wealth in a knowledge economy.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Cultural Evolution
- Information Theory
Background:
- Social interactions are governed by mutual expectations (double contingency).
- Cultural selection differs from natural selection; it's not hard-wired but evolves.
- Meaning is derived from hindsight, referencing future expectations (horizons of meaning).
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the micro-operations of social logic in expectation formation.
- To analyze cultural selection mechanisms as evolving communication codes.
- To investigate how these mechanisms generate redundancies and new options against time's arrow.
Main Methods:
- Conceptual analysis of double contingency as a social logic operator.
- Application of information theory and anticipatory systems theory.
- Examination of communication codes as cultural 'genotypes' influencing selection.
Main Results:
- Cultural evolution relies on communication codes acting as selection mechanisms.
- Expectation orders can operate recursively, generating overlapping meanings and new possibilities.
- Interactions among codes create synergistic effects, leading to wealth generation.
Conclusions:
- Double contingency is a fundamental social mechanism driving cultural evolution.
- Cultural selection, unlike natural selection, is dynamic and emergent.
- Understanding these processes can unlock wealth creation in knowledge-based economies.
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