Ten-year prediction of cardiovascular disease in healthy Norwegian men, based on NORRISK-2

Norwegian guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease recommend the use of the NORRISK-2 risk model, with some additions. We wished to investigate whether NORRISK-2 could predict cardiovascular disease in healthy Norwegian men who took part in the Oslo Ischaemia Study.

NORRISK-2 scores were calculated for 2 014 men in the age group 40-60 years who were included in the Oslo Ischaemia Study in 1972-75. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate the hazard ratio for death and cardiovascular disease within ten years of the participants' initial assessment.

No participant was lost to follow-up of the 2 014 men, 125 died in the first ten years after inclusion, 61 of whom died from cardiovascular disease. Those who died were older than those who survived, with a larger proportion of daily smokers, and they had higher systolic blood pressure and resting pulse, increased total cholesterol and lower physical fitness. The majority of those who died from acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke within ten years were classified in the high-risk group in NORRISK-2.

NORRISK-2 satisfactorily identified the high-risk persons in this cohort of healthy, middle-aged Norwegian men. This supports use of the Norwegian guidelines in the decision on possible primary protection against cardiovascular disease.