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Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters
A K Sahai1, Raju Mandal2,3, Susmitha Joseph2
1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, 411 008, India. sahai@tropmet.res.in.
Scientific Reports
|September 9, 2020
Summary
This study developed an early warning system for malaria and diarrhea in India. The system uses weather patterns to forecast disease outbreaks two weeks in advance, aiding public health efforts.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Epidemiology
- Public health
Background:
- Malaria and diarrhea pose significant disease burdens in India, particularly affecting children.
- Climate variability, including changes in rainfall and temperature, is linked to increased disease incidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a probabilistic forecasting method for malaria and diarrhea incidence in India.
- To create an early warning system for extended-range (2-3 weeks) disease forecasting using meteorological data.
Main Methods:
- An unsupervised pattern recognition technique was employed, utilizing meteorological parameters as input.
- The forecasting method was validated by analyzing malaria and diarrhea incidence in two districts of Maharashtra.
Main Results:
- Specific rainfall and temperature patterns were identified as conducive to increased disease incidence, with varying thresholds.
- The system demonstrated reasonable skill in providing probabilistic forecasts of disease incidence.
Conclusions:
- The developed early warning system is a valuable tool for climate-health outlooks.
- Probabilistic forecasts can predict potential disease incidence at least two weeks in advance for any Indian location.
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