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The spread of social distancing
Jonathan Cook1, Noah Newberger1, Sami Smalling2
1Oeste Corp, Division of Research and Statistics, United States of America.
Economics Letters
|September 9, 2020
Summary
Social distancing compliance is influenced by neighboring county policies. Coordinated regional or federal stay-at-home orders are crucial for effectively increasing social distancing in high-impact areas.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Social Science
Background:
- Social distancing measures were implemented globally to curb COVID-19 transmission.
- The effectiveness of these policies may be influenced by factors beyond local implementation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of neighboring county policies on social distancing behavior.
- To quantify the effect of cross-jurisdictional policies on the efficacy of stay-at-home orders.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of social distancing data in relation to local and neighboring county stay-at-home orders.
- Statistical modeling controlling for COVID-19 case counts and weather patterns.
Main Results:
- Neighboring county stay-at-home orders significantly impact local social distancing.
- A neighboring order reduces social distancing by over 50% compared to a local order's effect.
- Ignoring neighboring policies overstates stay-at-home order efficacy by approximately 50%.
Conclusions:
- Stay-at-home orders require regional or federal coordination for maximum impact.
- Policy evaluations must account for cross-jurisdictional policy effects to avoid overestimation.
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