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Quantum-like influence diagrams for decision-making.

Catarina Moreira1, Prayag Tiwari2, Hari Mohan Pandey3

  • 1School of Information Systems, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Australia.

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|September 10, 2020
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a quantum-like Bayesian network framework to model human decision-making, explaining irrational choices. It uses quantum interference to predict probability distributions and understand belief evolution in decision scenarios.

Keywords:
Assembly theoryCognitionDecision-makingQuantum-like Bayesian networksQuantum-like influence diagrams

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Science
  • Quantum Probability

Background:

  • Human decision-making often appears paradoxical and sub-optimal.
  • Existing models struggle to fully capture irrational choices and belief dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel framework for describing the probabilistic nature of decision-making.
  • To model paradoxical, sub-optimal, and irrational human decisions.
  • To integrate quantum-like Bayesian networks with maximum expected utility.

Main Methods:

  • Extending quantum-like Bayesian network formalism.
  • Incorporating the notion of maximum expected utility.
  • Utilizing quantum interference effects during inference to influence decision probabilities.

Main Results:

  • The model predicts probability distributions from experimental data by modeling uncertainty via quantum interference.
  • It identifies decisions perceived as optimal by decision-makers but are irrational according to expected utility theory.
  • It provides insights into the evolution of decision-maker beliefs within scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed quantum-like decision model offers a new perspective on decision science.
  • It has potential applications in economics, finance, and psychology for decision support systems.
  • The framework enhances understanding of human irrationality and belief dynamics in decision-making.