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Prognosis models for severe and critical COVID-19 based on the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices

Wei Zhou1, Xiaoyi Qin2, Xiang Hu3

  • 1Department of Intensive Care Unit, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.

International Journal of Medical Sciences
|September 14, 2020
PubMed

Insights

This study developed prognostic scoring models for severe COVID-19 patients using comorbidities. Higher scores predict longer hospital stays and critical illness, aiding in patient management.

Area of Science:

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology
  • Clinical Medicine

Background:

  • Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged as a significant global health crisis.
  • Severe and critical COVID-19 cases necessitate effective prognostic tools for management.
  • Comorbidities play a crucial role in disease severity and patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To establish prognostic scoring models for severe and critical COVID-19 patients.
  • To evaluate the association between comorbidity indices and patient outcomes, including length of stay and critical illness.
  • To provide a tool for graded patient management based on prognostic scores.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective data collection from 51 severe or critical COVID-19 patients.
  • Utilized Charlson (CCI), Elixhauser (ECI), and adjusted versions (ASCCI, ASECI) comorbidity indices.
  • Multivariate analysis to identify predictors of prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) and critical illness.

Main Results:

  • The average hospital LOS was 22.82 days, with 37.3% hospitalized over 24 days.
  • Older age and smoking were identified as predictors of longer LOS.
  • Increasing CCI, ASCCI, and ASECI scores significantly correlated with longer hospital LOS and critical illness outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Prognostic scoring models based on comorbidities can effectively predict outcomes in severe COVID-19.
  • These models can assist physicians in identifying high-risk patients requiring closer monitoring.
  • The findings support the use of comorbidity-based scores for graded management of COVID-19 patients.

Keywords:
Charlson comorbidity indexCorona Virus DiseaseElixhauser comorbidity indexcomorbiditylength of stayoutcome

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