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Understanding the risks for post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic review protocol.

Gina E C Charnley1,2, Ilan Kelman3,4,5, Katy Gaythorpe6,2

  • 1Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK g.charnley19@imperial.ac.uk.

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This systematic review examines global infectious disease outbreaks following disasters. It identifies risk factors to understand outbreak cascades in vulnerable populations.

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Area of Science:

  • Disaster epidemiology
  • Global public health
  • Infectious disease outbreaks

Background:

  • Disasters, including natural hazards and armed conflict, are increasingly influenced by human-induced global change like climate change.
  • Vulnerable populations face significant risks of infectious disease outbreaks post-disaster, leading to morbidity and mortality.
  • Existing reviews on post-disaster outbreaks are limited by short time scales, specific geographic areas, or single hazards.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To conduct a global-level review of infectious disease outbreaks following disasters.
  • To identify and understand the risk factors contributing to these outbreaks and their potential for cascading.
  • To fill the gap in existing literature regarding the global quantification and analysis of post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase, and GlobalHealth databases using a predefined strategy.
  • Inclusion of retrospective cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies on infectious disease outbreaks in disaster-affected populations.
  • Narrative and numerical data analysis of extracted information from eligible studies, with no exclusions based on geography or publication date.

Main Results:

  • Data extraction from eligible studies using a data charting form.
  • Comprehensive review of secondary data to identify patterns and risk factors.
  • Analysis will be both numerical and narrative to provide a holistic understanding.

Conclusions:

  • Findings will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed journal.
  • The results are intended to inform future mathematical modeling studies on disaster-related infectious diseases.
  • This review aims to enhance understanding of global outbreak risks in disaster contexts.