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Updated: Dec 9, 2025

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Questionable research practices may have little effect on replicability.

Rolf Ulrich1, Jeff Miller2

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.

Elife
|September 15, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Many scientific studies fail to replicate because true effects are rare, not just due to questionable research practices (QRPs). Understanding the base rate of true effects is key to improving research replicability.

Keywords:
base rate of true effectsfalse positivesmathematical modelling of research processmeta-researchnonep-hackingreplicability

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Area of Science:

  • Scientific methodology
  • Statistical analysis
  • Research integrity

Background:

  • Replicability crisis in science
  • Published results often fail to replicate
  • Questionable research practices (QRPs) are suspected contributors

Purpose of the Study:

  • Examine reasons for failed study replications
  • Analyze the impact of QRPs on replicability
  • Identify the primary determinant of replication rates

Main Methods:

  • General statistical framework
  • Inclusion of various QRPs in analysis
  • Statistical modeling of replication rates

Main Results:

  • Base rate of true effects is the major factor in replicability
  • Low true effect rates lead to low replication rates (e.g., drug discovery)
  • Statistical factors are often under-appreciated

Conclusions:

  • True effect base rate significantly impacts scientific replicability
  • QRPs are not the sole or primary cause of poor replication
  • Focusing on true effect prevalence is crucial for improving research reliability