Social, economic, and legislative factors and global road traffic fatalities

Road traffic fatalities (RTF) is the 8th cause of mortality around the world. At the end of the Decade of Action, it would be of utmost importance to revisit our knowledge on the determinants of RTF. The aim of this study is to assess factors related to RTF at global level.

We used road safety development index which accounts for the interactions between system, human and products to assess the RTF in 115 and 113 countries in 2013 and 2016, respectively. To analyze data, three statistical procedures (linear regression, classification and regression trees, and multivariate adaptive regression splines) were employed.

Classification and regression trees has the best performance amongst all others followed by multivariate adaptive regression splines for 2013 and 2016 data set with an R² around 0.83. Results show that any increase in human development index was associated with RTF reduction. Comparing RTF data of 2013 and 2016, 8 countries experienced a change of more than 30%, which demonstrated a significant relationship with GINI index (named after Corrado Gini). Considering the three components of human development index, it is revealed that education explained most of RTF variation in classification and regression trees model followed by income and life expectancy.

Policymakers should consider road collisions as a socio-economic issue. In this regard, they can make provisions to reduce RTF in the long run by focusing on enhancing the three components of human development index, mainly education. However, there is a need to investigate the causation pathway among these three components with RTF with different time-trend procedures.