Predicting Rice Stem Stink Bug Population Dynamics Based on GAMLSS Models

The rice stem stink bug, Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is one of the most harmful insects for Brazilian rice fields. Aiming to define the most appropriate time and place for pest management measures in commercial paddy fields, we adjusted regression models (Poisson, Zero Inflated Poisson, reparametrized Zero Inflated Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial) for modeling the population variation of T. limbativentris along the phenological cycle of the flooded rice cultivation. We hypothesize that the rice stem stink bug population's size is influenced by the rice cycle (time) and geographical positions within the crop. It was possible to predict the occurrence of the rice stem stink bug in the commercial flooded rice crop. The population of the rice stem stink bug increased significantly with the time or phenological evolution of rice. Our results indicated that the start of T. limbativentris monitoring should occur up to 45 d After Plant Emergence (DAE), from the regions along the edges of the rice paddies, which are the points of entry and higher concentration of the insect. In addition, 45 and 60 DAE were considered the crucial times for T. limbativentris control decision making in flooded rice paddies.