Cardiovascular disease risk stratification by the Framigham score is markedly improved by ambulatory compared with

Ramón C Hermida1, Diana E Ayala2, Artemio Mojón2

  • 1Laboratorio de Bioingeniería y Cronobiología, Atlantic Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (atlanTTic), Universidad de Vigo, Campus Universitario, Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain; Department of Biomedical Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States.

Insights

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) offers superior cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction compared to office BP measurements. A new model using ABPM data significantly improves CVD risk stratification accuracy over traditional methods.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
  • Hypertension and Blood Pressure Monitoring
  • Preventive Medicine and Public Health

Background:

  • Office blood pressure measurements (OBPM) are traditionally used for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification.
  • Current CVD risk models rely on OBPM and traditional risk factors, despite evidence that ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) better predicts outcomes.
  • There is a need for improved CVD risk stratification models that incorporate more accurate BP measurements.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the diagnostic accuracy, discrimination, and performance of traditional CVD risk scores with a novel model using ABPM-derived parameters.
  • To evaluate the clinical utility of ABPM in refining CVD risk stratification beyond OBPM.
  • To develop and validate a new CVD risk stratification model (RS_ABPM) incorporating sleep-time BP data.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 19,949 participants in the Hygia Project, employing 48-hour ABPM.
  • Compared the original Framingham risk score (RS_OFG) and its adjusted version (RS_AFG) against a novel RS_ABPM model.
  • RS_ABPM replaced OBPM with sleep-time systolic BP (SBP) mean and sleep-time relative SBP decline as predictive factors.

Main Results:

  • During up to 12.7 years of follow-up, 1854 participants experienced a primary CVD outcome.
  • Sleep-time SBP and relative SBP decline were significant ABPM-derived predictors of CVD risk.
  • The RS_ABPM model demonstrated significantly improved calibration, accuracy, discrimination, and performance compared to RS_OFG and RS_AFG (P<.001).

Conclusions:

  • CVD risk stratification based solely on OBPM, as in the Framingham score, has significant limitations.
  • Around-the-clock ABPM is clinically valuable for accurately diagnosing hypertension and reliably assessing CVD risk.
  • The novel RS_ABPM model offers superior CVD risk prediction, highlighting the importance of incorporating ABPM data.
Abstract

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