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Published on: November 10, 2023
Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany
Andreas Stang1, Fabian Standl2, Bernd Kowall2
1Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, Germany; School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Boston University, Boston, United States.
Excess mortality was observed in Germany during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, particularly in older age groups. A sensitivity analysis adjusting for demographics indicated a slight deficit in deaths.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Demography
Background:
- The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic significantly impacted global health systems.
- Understanding excess mortality is crucial for assessing the pandemic's true burden.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate excess mortality in Germany during the initial phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (weeks 10-23, 2020).
- To analyze age-specific mortality patterns during this period.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of weekly age-specific death counts from 2016 to week 26, 2020.
- Estimation of expected weekly deaths using 2016-2019 averages.
- Calculation of standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals.
Main Results:
- Excess mortality was observed in individuals aged 60-69, 80-89, and 90+ during weeks 10-23, 2020.
- The overall net excess deaths were +8,071, with SMR of 1.03.
- A sensitivity analysis accounting for demographic changes showed an overall SMR of 0.98, indicating a deficit of 4,926 deaths.
Conclusions:
- Excess mortality in Germany during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was concentrated in specific older age groups and lasted approximately two months.
- Factors such as younger infection age, reduced contact rates, and effective pandemic management may have contributed to the observed mortality patterns.
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