Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements.
Julie Jebeile1, Michel Crucifix2
1Institute of Philosophy & Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland.
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
|September 22, 2020
Summary
Designing better climate change projections requires careful consideration of Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs). This study explores two interpretations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to improve MME design and uncertainty quantification.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Philosophy of Science
- Social Epistemology
Background:
- Climate change projections increasingly rely on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) to address model uncertainty.
- Designing MMEs to effectively probe specific uncertainties remains a key challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To offer two distinct interpretations of General Circulation Models (GCMs).
- To propose how Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) should be designed based on these interpretations.
- To explore complementary approaches for enhancing MME design.
Main Methods:
- Conceptual analysis of General Circulation Models (GCMs) as modular systems.
- Conceptual analysis of GCMs as aggregations of expert judgments.
- Philosophical examination of ensemble design strategies.
Main Results:
- Interpretation 1: GCMs as modular systems, MMEs as 'plug-and-play' combinations.
- Interpretation 2: GCMs as expert judgments, MMEs as samples of these judgments.
- Both interpretations offer valuable, complementary perspectives for MME design.
Conclusions:
- Understanding GCMs through modularity and expert judgment provides a framework for designing better MMEs.
- Integrating insights from philosophy of science and social epistemology can improve climate model ensemble strategies.
- This work contributes to more robust uncertainty quantification in climate change projections.
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