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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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How people know their risk preference.

Ruben C Arslan1, Martin Brümmer2, Thomas Dohmen3,4,5,6,7

  • 1Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany. ruben.arslan@gmail.com.

Scientific Reports
|September 22, 2020
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Survey questions about risk preferences are more reliable predictors of real-world behavior than lab experiments. People explain their risk tolerance by recalling consequential life experiences, validating stated preferences.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Psychology

Background:

  • Risk-taking propensity varies significantly among individuals.
  • Survey-based stated preferences demonstrate greater stability and predictive power for real-world risk-taking compared to revealed preference tasks like laboratory lotteries.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate why survey-based stated preferences for risk are more valid and predictive than traditional incentivized lottery tasks.
  • To explore the underlying self-perception and reasoning behind stated risk preferences.

Main Methods:

  • A multimethod study involving over 3,000 respondents from population samples.
  • Respondents answered a widely used risk-preference question and provided explanations for their choices.
  • Third-party readers assessed respondents' inferred risk preferences based on their explanations.

Main Results:

  • Respondents' explanations focused on diagnostic, voluntary, and consequential behaviors and experiences.
  • Inferences about respondents' risk preferences made by third-party readers showed high intersubjective validity.
  • Stated preferences appear to be grounded in real-world, high-stakes experiences.

Conclusions:

  • Stated risk preferences are valid because individuals draw upon their understanding of diagnostic behaviors and experiences from real-world situations.
  • The reasoning behind stated preferences is accessible and understandable to others, supporting their predictive utility.