Measuring the evolutionary potential of a winter-active parasitic wasp to climate change

In temperate climates, as a consequence of warming winters, an increasing number of ectothermic species are remaining active throughout winter months instead of diapausing, rendering them increasingly vulnerable to unpredictable cold events. One species displaying a shift in overwintering strategy is the parasitoid wasp and biological control agent Aphidius avenae. The current study aimed to better understand the consequence of a changing overwintering strategy on the evolutionary potential of an insect population to adapt to the cold stress events, set to increase in frequency, even during milder winters. Using a parental half-sibling breeding design, narrow-sense heritability of the cold tolerance, morphology and longevity of A. avenae was estimated. The heritability of cold tolerance was estimated at 0.07 (CI_95% = [0.00; 0.25]) for the Critical Thermal Minima (CT_min) and 0.11 (CI_95% = [0.00; 0.34]) for chill coma temperature; estimates much lower than those obtained for morphological traits (tibia length 0.20 (CI_95% = [0.03; 0.37]); head width 0.23 (CI_95% = [0.09; 0.39]); wing surface area 0.28 (CI_95% = [0.11; 0.47])), although comparable with the heritability estimate of 0.12 obtained for longevity (CI_95% = [0.00; 0.25]). The heritability estimates obtained thus suggest that A. avenae possesses low adaptive potential against cold stress. If such estimates are indicative of the evolutionary potential of A. avenae cold tolerance, more emphasis may be placed on adaptive phenotypic plasticity at the individual level to persist in a changing climate, with potential implications for the biological control function they provide.