Trend in Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Fukushima From 2008 Through 2015

Cancer incidence in Fukushima Prefecture, especially thyroid cancer, has been a public concern, since the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants accident following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011; however, cancer incidence for Fukushima residents before and after the accident based on a population-based cancer registry (PBCR) has not been known worldwide.

We obtained the corrected-incidence data for invasive cancers newly diagnosed from 2008 through 2015 from the Fukushima Cancer Registry. We checked data quality indicators for PBCRs to confirm comparability. We calculated age-standardized annual incidence and mortality of cancer for all-site, thyroid, and leukemia by calendar year and sex, as we did for Tochigi Prefecture and all of Japan as references for comparison. We applied joinpoint trend analysis to test an apparent trend in incidence and mortality.

The corrected incidence data from the Fukushima Cancer Registry had sufficient quality comparable to other PBCRs. For the age-standardized annual incidence by sex and cancer type in Fukushima and Tochigi, we did not detect any joinpoint in trend with statistical significance. Cancer incidence gently increased from 2008 through 2015 nationwide. Incidence and mortality of cancer for Fukushima before the accident was very close to that for Tochigi.

We interpreted the incidence statistics of cancer for Fukushima residents from 2008 through 2015. Our results will provide fundamental statistics for subsequent researchers to assess the relationship between the disaster and cancer incidence among Fukushima residents in the long term.