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Susan C Cook-Patton^1,2, Sara M Leavitt³, David Gibbs⁴

¹The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA. susan.cook-patton@tnc.org.

|September 24, 2020

Summary

Natural forest regrowth is key for climate mitigation, but carbon accumulation rates vary globally. This study maps these rates, revealing significant underestimation by current models and refining climate mitigation potential assessments.

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Area of Science:

Environmental science
Climate change mitigation
Forestry

Background:

Global warming necessitates greenhouse gas emission reduction and carbon dioxide capture.
Natural forest regrowth is a strategy for carbon sequestration, but its potential is poorly quantified due to variable accumulation rates.
Accurate assessments are crucial for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

To identify factors driving variations in natural forest carbon accumulation rates.
To create a global map of aboveground carbon accumulation rates during the first 30 years of forest regrowth.
To refine estimates of climate mitigation potential from forest regrowth.

Main Methods:

Compiled 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation from natural forest regrowth.
Combined field data with 66 environmental covariate layers.
Developed a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates.

Main Results:

Identified climatic factors as primary drivers of carbon accumulation rate variation.
Revealed over 100-fold global variation in rates, with IPCC default rates underestimating accumulation by 32% on average.
Quantified an 11% lower maximum climate mitigation potential from forest regrowth than previously estimated.

Conclusions:

The developed global map provides a robust tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.
Current models may underestimate carbon sequestration potential, necessitating updated assessments.
Understanding regional variations in carbon accumulation is vital for optimizing climate mitigation efforts.