Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19

The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19.

Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000-100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000-10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.

In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.