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Assessing site signal preservation in reference chronologies for dendro-provenancing
Urs Gut1,2
1Fachbereich Prähistorische Archäologie, Institut für Archäologie, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Plos One
|September 24, 2020
Summary
Dendro-provenancing uses tree ring-width series to determine wood origin. Simulations show that while pure reference chronologies are difficult to create, elevation-specific data and high similarity thresholds improve accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Dendrochronology
- Climate Science
- Forest Ecology
Background:
- Dendro-provenancing estimates wood origin using regional tree growth patterns.
- Reference chronologies from living trees are often extended with historical wood data.
- Contamination of reference chronologies with non-local growth signals is a significant, understudied risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the risk of reference chronology contamination in dendro-provenancing.
- To assess the effectiveness of simulation in evaluating contamination risks.
- To identify conditions that guarantee acceptable contamination levels.
Main Methods:
- A simulation approach was used to generate pseudo site chronologies.
- 15 Norway spruce site chronologies from Switzerland were utilized.
- Pseudo chronologies preserved statistical properties of real data, allowing unambiguous provenance tracking.
Main Results:
- Quasi uncontaminated references can be established under ideal conditions with very high similarity thresholds.
- Contaminated pseudo references occurred rarely even with high thresholds.
- Elevation-specific pseudo references were established with lower similarity thresholds.
Conclusions:
- Simulation is the primary method for assessing reference chronology contamination risk.
- High similarity thresholds and elevation-specific data improve reference chronology reliability.
- This simulation approach provides a practical tool for enhancing dendro-provenancing accuracy.
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