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Live Imaging and Quantification of Viral Infection in K18 hACE2 Transgenic Mice Using Reporter-Expressing Recombinant SARS-CoV-2
Published on: November 5, 2021
Significant relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions may result in profound mortality: A
1Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York City, New York, United States of America.
Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21st century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to simulate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS) based on data collected between March 4 and April 28, 2020. Simulations predict that undocumented infections significantly contribute to infectivity, NPIs are effective in reducing morbidity and mortality, and relaxation >50% of NPIs from initial lock-down levels may result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, the risks of significantly reducing NPIs should be carefully considered. This study employs modelling to simulate fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.
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