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Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?
Emily G Simmonds1,2, Ella F Cole1, Ben C Sheldon1
1Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK.
Climate change disrupts species interactions. Even with plasticity and evolution, great tits face extinction if breeding timing lags prey by over 24 days due to climate change.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Climate change alters phenology, disrupting species interactions.
- Predicting ecological consequences of phenological shifts is challenging.
- Structured population models can assess extinction risks.
Discussion:
- Phenotypic plasticity in great tit breeding timing initially buffers against prey phenology shifts.
- Climate change projections show plasticity is insufficient to maintain synchrony.
- Evolutionary responses may accelerate but cannot prevent mismatch.
Key Insights:
- Temporal asynchrony thresholds predict rapid predator population collapse.
- A 24-day lag in predator phenology relative to prey leads to inevitable extinction.
- Stable population dynamics can mask underlying vulnerability to climate change.
Outlook:
- Continued high greenhouse gas emissions pose a significant extinction risk.
- Understanding phenological mismatch is crucial for conservation.
- Model projections highlight the urgent need for climate action.
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