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Related Concept Videos

RL Circuits01:14

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An RL circuit consists of a resistor and an inductor and may have a source of emf connected to it. The inductor in the circuit helps to prevent rapid changes in current, which can be helpful if a steady current is required but the external source has a fluctuating emf. Consider an open RL circuit connected to a source of constant emf. As soon as the circuit is closed, the current begins to increase at a rate that depends only on the value of the inductance in the circuit. The greater the...
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RL Circuit without Source01:14

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Longitudinal Research02:20

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Sometimes we want to see how people change over time, as in studies of human development and lifespan. When we test the same group of individuals repeatedly over an extended period of time, we are conducting longitudinal research. Longitudinal research is a research design in which data-gathering is administered repeatedly over an extended period of time. For example, we may survey a group of individuals about their dietary habits at age 20, retest them a decade later at age 30, and then again...
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Series R—L Circuit Transients01:22

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In a series resistor-inductor (R-L) circuit, closing the switch at the start of the time period simulates a three-phase short circuit, a fault condition where all three phases of an unloaded synchronous machine are short-circuited. When there is no fault impedance and no initial current, the initial voltage is determined by the phase angle of the source voltage.
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Reliability and Validity01:29

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Reliability and validity are two important considerations that must be made with any type of data collection. Reliability refers to the ability to consistently produce a given result. In the context of psychological research, this would mean that any instruments or tools used to collect data do so in consistent, reproducible ways.
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Are low LRs reliable?

John S Buckleton1, Simone N Pugh2, Jo-Anne Bright3

  • 1University of Auckland, Department of Statistics, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand; Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited, Private Bag 92021, Auckland, 1142 New Zealand.

Forensic Science International. Genetics
|September 26, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Low likelihood ratios (LRs) are reliable, even when small. Reliability is determined by statistical support for non-donors, not just the LR magnitude. This study confirms low LRs meet reliability standards.

Keywords:
Forensic DNALikelihood ratioProbabilistic genotypingSTRmix

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Likelihood ratios (LRs) are crucial in forensic science for evaluating evidence.
  • The reliability of low LRs has been questioned, impacting their interpretation.
  • Statistical definitions of reliability are needed to assess LR performance.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To statistically define and test the reliability of low likelihood ratios (LRs).
  • To determine if low LRs provide dependable evidential support.
  • To assess LR reliability using Turing's rule as a benchmark.

Main Methods:

  • Defining reliability based on the rate of inclusionary support for non-donors.
  • Applying Turing's rule to establish an upper bound for non-donor inclusionary support.
  • Analyzing a mixture of real and simulated forensic data.

Main Results:

  • The observed rate of non-donor inclusionary support was significantly lower than predicted by Turing's rule.
  • This indicates that low LRs consistently provide less support for non-donors than the theoretical maximum.
  • The data supports the reliability of low likelihood ratios.

Conclusions:

  • Low likelihood ratios are statistically reliable in forensic evaluations.
  • Reliability is confirmed by observed non-donor support rates being below theoretical bounds.
  • Further research may explore effective communication strategies for the value of evidence.