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Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi Province with discrete time imported cases

Ming-Tao Li1, Gui-Quan Sun2,3, Juan Zhang3

  • 1School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, 030024, China.

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
|September 29, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Advancing Wuhan

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • COVID-19 outbreak began in December 2019, rapidly spreading across China.
  • Shanxi Province reported 133 confirmed cases, primarily imported from Hubei Province.
  • The drivers of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi remained unclear, necessitating urgent investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a SEIQR difference-equation model for COVID-19 transmission analysis.
  • To assess the impact of imported cases and lockdown timing on disease spread in Shanxi Province.
  • To provide insights into COVID-19 risk analysis and control strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a SEIQR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Quarantine, Recovered) difference-equation model.
  • Incorporated discrete-time imported cases into the epidemiological model.
  • Analyzed the effects of lockdown timing on the projected number of COVID-19 cases.

Main Results:

  • Earlier lockdown in Wuhan correlated with fewer infectious cases.
  • Advancing the city lockdown by two days could halve the number of cases (67, 95% CI: 66-68).
  • Delaying the lockdown by two days could increase cases to approximately 196 (95% CI: 193-199).

Conclusions:

  • The SEIQR model effectively analyzes COVID-19 transmission dynamics, including imported cases.
  • Lockdown timing is a critical factor in mitigating the scale of COVID-19 outbreaks.
  • The model is applicable to other Chinese provinces and countries experiencing initial imported cases.

Keywords:
COVID-19SEIQR modelcity lock-down strategydifference equationimported cases

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