Corruption and instutitions: An analysis for the Colombian case

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Public Policy
• Criminology

Background:

• Government contract allocation is susceptible to errors and potential corruption.
• The Electronic Public Procurement System (SECOP) in Colombia offers a data source to analyze these errors.
• Understanding determinants of spending errors can inform anti-corruption strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the main determinants of spending allocation errors by the Colombian Government.
• To analyze the probability of contract additions as an indicator of government corruption.
• To assess the predictability of these spending errors.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from Colombia's Electronic Public Procurement System (SECOP).
• Employed binary choice models to estimate the probability of contract additions.
• Analyzed the influence of socioeconomic factors (income, education) on contract additions.

Main Results:

• Average income and educational levels in Colombian departments directly influence the probability of contract additions.
• Public and civil works contracts exhibit higher forecast errors, suggesting mechanisms for corruption.
• The study demonstrates high certainty in predicting contract additions.

Conclusions:

• Socioeconomic factors are significant determinants of government spending errors in Colombia.
• Contract additions, particularly in public works, serve as a key indicator and mechanism for corruption.
• Predictive models for contract additions can enhance transparency and accountability in public spending.