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Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
Fabrizio Nicastro1, Giorgia Sironi2, Elio Antonello2
1Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Rome Astronomical Observatory, Monte Porzio Catone, Rome, RM 00078, Italy.
Iscience
|September 30, 2020
Summary
Solar UV radiation, specifically UV-B and UV-A photons, explains the seasonal patterns of viral respiratory diseases. This mechanism, driven by daily solar forcing, accounts for yearly outbreaks and latitudinal variations.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Virology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- The seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a recognized but poorly understood phenomenon.
- Existing models, focusing on viral evolution and host immunity, fail to fully explain recurring outbreaks and latitudinal patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of solar radiation in the seasonality of viral respiratory diseases.
- To explain the observed yearly recurrence and latitudinal distribution of these diseases.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons.
- Modeling a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism driven by solar radiation.
Main Results:
- Solar UV-B and UV-A photons fully explain the seasonality of viral respiratory diseases.
- The proposed solar forcing mechanism accounts for both the regularity of outbreaks and their latitudinal distribution.
- This mechanism can maintain periodicity over extended periods, even with slower internal dynamics like waning immunity.
Conclusions:
- Solar UV radiation is the primary driver of viral respiratory disease seasonality.
- The findings offer a novel explanation for epidemiological patterns, integrating environmental factors with disease dynamics.
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