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Forecast UTI: application for predicting intensive care unit beds in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
Luiz Leduíno de Salles Neto1, Camila Bertini Martins2, Antônio Augusto Chaves1
1Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Instituto de Ciência e Tecnologia, São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.
Abstract:
In view of the need to manage and forecast the number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds for critically ill COVID-19 patients, the Forecast UTI open access application was developed to enable hospital indicator monitoring based on past health data and the temporal dynamics of the Coronavirus epidemic. Forecast UTI also enables short-term forecasts of the number of beds occupied daily by COVID-19 patients and possible care scenarios to be established. This article presents the functions, mode of access and examples of uses of Forecast UTI, a computational tool intended to assist managers of public and private hospitals within the Brazilian National Health System by supporting quick, strategic and efficient decision-making.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.