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Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.
Malcolm John Roberts1, Joanne Camp1, Jon Seddon1
1Met Office Exeter UK.
Geophysical Research Letters
|October 1, 2020
Summary
Climate models at 25 km resolution improve tropical cyclone prediction. Future projections show declining activity in the South Indian Ocean, with slight increases in wind speeds globally.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Tropical cyclones pose significant risks globally.
- Understanding future changes in tropical cyclone properties is crucial for climate change impact assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the performance of climate models at various resolutions for tropical cyclone simulation.
- To project future changes in tropical cyclone activity and intensity.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a multimodel ensemble of climate models (250 km to 25 km resolution).
- Employed a common experimental design with atmosphere-only and coupled simulations (1950-2050).
- Applied two uniform tracking algorithms across all models.
Main Results:
- Models at 25 km resolution show improved tropical cyclone frequency, distribution, and intensity representation.
- Several high-resolution models accurately simulate very intense storms.
- Projected tropical cyclone activity generally decreases in the South Indian Ocean by 2050.
- Changes in other basins are uncertain, depending on tracking algorithms and forcings.
- Coupled models indicate a slight increase in average tropical cyclone 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
Conclusions:
- Higher resolution climate models enhance the simulation of tropical cyclones.
- Future tropical cyclone activity projections vary by region and model specifics.
- Coupled models suggest a modest increase in tropical cyclone intensity globally.
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