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The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires.

Sara Yeatman1,2, Jenny Trinitapoli3, Sarah Garver3

  • 1Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 188, PO Box 173364, Denver, CO, 80217, USA. sara.yeatman@ucdenver.edu.

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Fertility desires predict pregnancy outcomes, even amid high unintended pregnancies. This research confirms the value of understanding fertility timing desires in population studies.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Reproductive Health
  • Sociology

Background:

  • High rates of unintended fertility challenge the predictive power of fertility desires.
  • Over- and underachievement of fertility goals are common, prompting skepticism about the utility of fertility desires.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the coexistence of widespread unintended fertility and meaningful fertility desires.
  • To demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires.
  • To analyze the relationship between desired time to next birth and pregnancy likelihood.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from Malawi to assess fertility desires and outcomes.
  • Employed statistical analysis to examine the predictive validity of fertility timing desires over four-month and one-year periods.
  • Investigated the gradient effect of desired time to next birth on pregnancy likelihood.

Main Results:

  • Fertility timing desires were found to be highly predictive of pregnancy.
  • A clear gradient was observed: the likelihood of pregnancy decreased as desired time to next birth increased.
  • This predictive relationship persisted despite high levels of unintended pregnancy in the study sample.

Conclusions:

  • Meaningful fertility desires and high rates of unintended fertility can coexist.
  • Fertility desires, while potentially blunt, remain a crucial tool for demographic analysis.
  • Discordance between fertility desires and outcomes highlights societal constraints and the dynamic nature of desires, not their irrelevance.