Observed and projected changes in the climate based decay hazard of timber in the United Kingdom

Current climate projections suggest that the UK will experience warmer and wetter winters and warmer and dryer summers. This change in the climate could affect the incidence or severity of microbiological attack on exposed timber and have significant impact on buildings and construction. One method of assessing the geographical climate based hazard is to use the Scheffer Climate index, which relates temperature and rain variables. There was a considerable increase in the Scheffer climate indices for various locations of the UK from 1990 to 2019. The highest index values are seen in the Northern and western areas of the United Kingdom, but increases are seen across the country. The paper also uses representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios to project future climate decay indices for the United Kingdom until the end of the twenty-first century. The projections show an increase in the Scheffer index even in the lowest RCP scenario, with indices in all regions of the UK increasing to indicate very high hazard of decay. The major implication is that to ensure serviceability of wood and wooden structures exposed to the environment the use of good design, durable woods and properly treated or modified woods will be paramount.