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Updated: Dec 7, 2025

The Use of High-resolution Infrared Thermography HRIT for the Study of Ice Nucleation and Ice Propagation in Plants
Published on: May 8, 2015
Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
Huanjiong Wang1,2, Chaoyang Wu3,4, Philippe Ciais5
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China. wanghj@igsnrr.ac.cn.
Abstract:
Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.
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