Decomposing the global carbon balance pressure index: evidence from 77 countries

Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is essential for reducing the greenhouse effect. In this study, we constructed a carbon balance pressure index to measure the eco-environment pressure caused by carbon emissions in 77 countries from 2000 to 2015, and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method was used to identify the key factors related to carbon balance pressure. As the change in vegetation carbon sequestration is relatively stable, carbon emissions have become the direct cause of the rise in the global carbon balance pressure. The carbon balance pressure in advanced economies decreased slowly, while that in emerging economies increased but the growth rate decreased. The decomposition results showed that carbon intensity is the main factor restraining the rise of carbon balance pressure, while GDP per capita and land population pressure are the main driving forces, and vegetation carbon sequestration intensity plays only a small role. Further analysis showed that the restraining effect of carbon intensity can offset the incremental effect of GDP per capita in advanced economies, and the vegetation carbon sequestration intensity also has a positive impact, but not in emerging economies. Besides, different factors play different roles depending on the country. The conclusions were also supported by various robustness tests.