Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Health Economics
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Microsimulation models offer advanced policy forecasting and detailed insights.
• Traditional actuarial models have limitations in scope and detail.
• The Future Elderly Model (FEM) aims to improve forecasting of elderly outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To validate the mortality and quality of life forecasts of the FEM.
• To compare FEM projections against actual observed data and actuarial models.
• To assess the FEM's utility for policy simulation in aging populations.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a version of the FEM estimated on early waves of the Health and Retirement Study data.
• Compared FEM mortality and longevity projections with observed outcomes.
• Benchmarked FEM forecasts against traditional actuarial mortality and longevity forecasts.

Main Results:

• FEM mortality and longevity projections closely align with observed data.
• FEM performance in mortality forecasting is comparable to actuarial models.
• FEM successfully predicts quality of life and longitudinal outcomes, a key advantage.

Conclusions:

• The FEM provides a robust tool for forecasting elderly health and economic trajectories.
• FEM offers superior policy simulation capabilities over traditional actuarial models.
• The model's accuracy in predicting mortality and quality of life supports its use in policy research.