Analysis of cervical cancer mortality rate trends in Natal-RN, Brazil, between 2000 and 2012

To describe cervical cancer mortality rates and their corresponding trends, and to analyze the spatial correlations of this type of cancer in Natal-RN, Brazil, between 2000 and 2012.

The simple linear regression model, the empirical Bayes method and the Global Moran's index were used for the statistical analysis.

The mortality coefficient of cervical cancer in Natal, standardized by age range, was 5.5 per 100 000 women. All historical series for the coefficients studied were classified as stable. The Global Moran's index obtained was 0.048, with a p-value for the spatial test correlation between neighborhoods of 0.300. The average family income by neighborhood showed no significant correlation to cervical cancer mortality rates.

This study found a temporal stabilization and spatial independence trend of cervical cancer mortality rates in women from Natal, as well as the absence of correlation between these rates and the average family income of the of the participating women distributed by neighborhoods. In view of this, changes in the public policies should be made aimed at preventing the disease; adopting these measures could positively impact the screening program, improving the coverage of Pap smears and immunization campaigns against HPV, in order to reverse this trend and achieve a reduction of mortality rates.