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The potential impact of a recent measles epidemic on COVID-19 in Samoa

Chandini Raina MacIntyre1, Valentina Costantino2, David J Heslop3

  • 1The Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, UNSW Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

BMC Infectious Diseases
|October 8, 2020
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Measles outbreaks can worsen COVID-19 outcomes. Measles-induced immune amnesia may increase COVID-19 cases by 8% and deaths by over 2%, particularly in young populations. High measles vaccination rates are crucial.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Immunology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Global resurgence of measles coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Samoa experienced a severe measles epidemic in 2019.
  • Measles infection can cause immune amnesia, increasing susceptibility to other infections for over two years.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the potential impact of measles-induced immune amnesia on a COVID-19 epidemic in Samoa.
  • To assess how measles-related immune suppression could affect COVID-19 transmission and mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized measles incidence data from 2018-2019 for Samoa.
  • Incorporated Samoan population demographics and contact patterns.
  • Developed a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic model.

Main Results:

  • Samoa's population structure favors transmission among individuals under 20 years old.
  • While mortality is highest in those over 60, a secondary peak in deaths may occur in the under-20 age group.
  • Measles-induced immune amnesia could lead to an 8% increase in COVID-19 cases and a >2% increase in deaths.

Conclusions:

  • Samoa should prioritize rapid, high measles vaccination coverage and enhanced COVID-19 surveillance.
  • The impact of COVID-19 may be amplified by measles-induced immune paresis.
  • Findings are relevant to other regions affected by measles outbreaks, including the Pacific and Europe.
Keywords:
CoronavirusImmune paresisMeasles immunity amnesia

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