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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 6, 2025

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Complexity in psychological self-ratings: implications for research and practice.

Merlijn Olthof1, Fred Hasselman2,3, Anna Lichtwarck-Aschoff2

  • 1Behavioural Science Institute, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. m.olthof@bsi.ru.nl.

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|October 8, 2020
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Summary

Psychological self-ratings exhibit complex dynamics, including memory and regime shifts, challenging traditional models. This complexity suggests long-term prediction of individual mental health trajectories may be impossible.

Keywords:
Complex systemComplexityEcological momentary assessmentExperience sampling methodMental healthPersonalized medicinePsychopathologyTime series

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Area of Science:

  • Complex Systems Science
  • Psychopathology Research
  • Mental Health

Background:

  • Psychopathology research is shifting from group-based models to personalized approaches using complex systems theories.
  • This personalized approach often relies on repeated self-ratings from individual patients.
  • The complexity dynamics of these self-ratings, as indicators of individual patient systems, were previously unexamined.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test whether repeated self-ratings of psychological states display markers of complexity.
  • To examine the presence of memory, regime shifts, and sensitive dependence on initial conditions in self-ratings.
  • To validate the assumption of complex dynamics in a complex systems approach to psychopathology.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 1476 repeated self-ratings from a single patient.
  • Application of statistical tests including Bartels rank test, autocorrelation functions, and change point analysis.
  • Utilized the Sugihara-May algorithm to assess sensitive dependence on initial conditions.

Main Results:

  • Self-ratings of psychological states demonstrated all tested complexity markers: time-varying memory, multiple regime shifts, and sensitive dependence.
  • Self-ratings of physical sensations showed less complex dynamics, behaving more like random variables.
  • These findings confirm that psychological self-ratings exhibit complex, non-stationary dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Repeated psychological self-ratings generate complex, non-independent data, indicating individuals are dynamic 'moving targets'.
  • The observed complexity, including regime shifts, implies fundamental limitations for long-term prediction of individual mental health trajectories.
  • A complex systems approach is essential for psychopathology research, necessitating the adoption of complexity science models and methods.