Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis

This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with likely TB deaths, likely TB-related deaths and deaths from other causes. Understanding the factors associated with mortality could help the strategy to End TB, especially the goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% between 2015 and 2035.

A retrospective, population-based cohort study of the causes of death was performed using a competing risk model in patients receiving treatment for TB. Patients had started TB treatment in Brazil 2008-2013 with any death certificates dated in the same period. We used three categories of deaths, according to ICD-10 codes: i) probable TB deaths; ii) TB-related deaths; iii) deaths from other causes.

In this cohort, 39,997 individuals (14.1%) died, out of a total of 283,508 individuals. Of these, 8,936 were probable TB deaths (22.4%) and 3,365 TB-related deaths (8.4%), illustrating high mortality rates. 27,696 deaths (69.2%) were from other causes. From our analysis, factors strongly associated with probable TB deaths were male gender (sHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26-1.40), age over 60 years (sHR = 9.29, 95% CI: 8.15-10.60), illiterate schooling (sHR = 2.33, 95% CI: 2.09-2.59), black (sHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26-1.40) and brown (sHR = 13, 95% CI: 1.07-1.19) color/race, from the Southern region (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.28), clinical mixed forms (sHR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.73-2.11) and alcoholism (sHR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.81-2.00). Also, HIV positive serology was strongly associated with probable TB deaths (sHR = 62.78; 95% CI: 55.01-71.63).

In conclusion, specific strategies for active surveillance and early case detection can reduce mortality among patients with tuberculosis, leading to more timely detection and treatment.