Increased extinction in the emergence of novel ecological communities

Environmental change is transforming ecological assemblages into new configurations, resulting in novel communities. We developed a robust methodology to detect novel communities, examine patterns of emergence, and quantify probabilities of local demographic turnover in transitions to and from novel communities. Using a global dataset of Cenozoic marine plankton communities, we found that the probability of local extinction, origination, and emigration during transitions to a novel community increased two to four times that of background community changes. Although rare, novel communities were five times more likely than chance to shift into another novel state. For marine plankton communities at a 100,000-year time grain, novel communities were sensitive to further extinctions and substantial community change.