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A simple tool for comparing benefits and 'costs' of COVID-19 exit strategies
John Frank1, Andrew J Williams2
1Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, UK.
Background:
Governments and health policymakers are now looking for strategies to lift the COVID-19 lockdown, while reducing risk to the public.
Methods:
We propose the population attributable risk (PAR) as an established epidemiological tool that could support decision-making through quickly estimating the main benefits and costs of various exit strategies.
Results:
We demonstrate the feasibility of use of PAR using pandemic data, that were publicly available in mid-May 2020 from Scotland and the US, to estimate the proportion of COVID-19 hospital admissions which might be avoided, and the proportion of adverse labour market effects - for various scenarios - based on maintaining the lockdown for those of certain ages with and without comorbidities.
Conclusion:
These calculations could be refined and applied in different countries to inform important COVID-19 policy decisions, using routinely collected data.
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