Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: Practice Predictions for the Year 2023

Research priorities are best determined by the most pressing scientific questions, in the context of current knowledge. However, definitive research studies take time, while real-world experience accumulates. Adoption of new practices before adequate comparison with current treatments threatens successful study conduct and may expose patients to what ultimately turns out to be inferior treatment. We conducted a survey to understand the hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) community's predictions about future practice trends in the HCT field and results of ongoing Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) trials to gauge how the HCT community views the treatments being studied. The survey was distributed between February and March 2019 to an electronic mailing list of HCT clinicians practicing in the United States maintained by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). Of 986 clinicians surveyed, 315 responded (32%). They predicted an increase in the number of HCTs performed for malignant hematologic diseases and benign diseases such as sickle cell, autoimmune, and genetic disorders. The majority (63%) predicted that matched related donors will remain the preferred donor source for adult HCT recipients in 2023, but 21% predicted haploidentical (haplo) donors and 17% predicted matched unrelated donors would be the preferred source. Most respondents (65%) predicted a decrease in the use of umbilical cord blood (UCB) as a graft source for HCT. Most respondents also predicted that calcineurin-based graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis would be replaced by post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy) (55%), biomarker use would become standard practice to guide GVHD therapy (73%), and steroids would be combined with other agents as first-line therapy for newly diagnosed acute (53%) and chronic GVHD (54%). In ongoing BMT CTN trials in which outcomes are not yet known, 60% to 92% of respondents had an opinion about which arm they thought would be superior. However, not all respondents predicted the same outcome, with 44% to 88% choosing the same arm. There was no clear relationship between the proportion predicting the same arm would win and accrual to the trial. Survey respondents were optimistic about an increasing volume of transplantation procedures, and they also expected significant changes in HCT practice over the next few years, including wider adoption of PTCy GVHD prophylaxis, increased use of biomarkers to guide GVHD therapy, and decreased use of UCB HCT. The degree of equipoise in the community about the relative efficacy of therapies being studied did not seem to affect accrual to current BMT CTN trials, but this is an area that needs further investigation.