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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 6, 2025

Quantifying Learning in Young Infants: Tracking Leg Actions During a Discovery-learning Task
11:18

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Do infants and preschoolers quantify probabilities based on proportions?

Sarah Placì1,2,3, Julia Fischer1,2, Hannes Rakoczy2,3

  • 1Cognitive Ethology Laboratory, German Primate Center, Kellnerweg 4, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.

Royal Society Open Science
|October 13, 2020
PubMed
Summary

Neither infants nor preschoolers reliably use object proportions to estimate probabilities in random sampling tasks. Further research is needed to understand the development of probabilistic reasoning in early childhood.

Keywords:
child cognitiondevelopmental psychologyintuitive statisticsprobabilistic reasoning

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Development
  • Developmental Psychology
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Quantifying probabilities based on proportions is crucial for statistical reasoning.
  • Previous studies on early probabilistic reasoning in children yielded mixed results.
  • Discrepancies exist regarding whether infants or preschoolers utilize proportions for probability estimation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the probabilistic reasoning abilities of 12-month-old infants and 3- to 4-year-old preschoolers.
  • To determine if young children rely on object proportions to estimate probabilities in random sampling.
  • To clarify developmental trajectories of probabilistic reasoning.

Main Methods:

  • Tested 12-month-olds and 3- to 4-year-olds using identical methods across age groups.
  • Employed methods similar to previous studies on probability estimation.
  • Included a control condition with certain outcomes to assess infant performance.

Main Results:

  • Neither 12-month-old infants nor 3- to 4-year-old preschoolers relied on object proportions to estimate probabilities.
  • Preschoolers' results align with some prior findings.
  • Infants' performance was inconclusive due to failure in a certainty control condition.

Conclusions:

  • Young children, including infants and preschoolers, do not appear to use object proportions for probability estimation in random sampling.
  • Infants' inconsistent performance necessitates further investigation into their probabilistic reasoning capabilities.
  • More systematic studies are required to reconcile conflicting findings on infant probability estimation.