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Spatial co-localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger
Rosalind J Dodd1,2, David R Chadwick2, Ian M Harris2
1Department of Soil and Physical Sciences, Lincoln University, Lincoln, Christchurch, 7647, New Zealand.
Abstract:
Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co-occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office's long-term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co-localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land-use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land-uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co-occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land-use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.
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