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Risk Factors Associated with Mortality Among Patients with Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Africa
Mustapha Mohammed1,2, Surajuddeen Muhammad3, Fatima Zaji Mohammed4
1School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. macreener88@gmail.com.
Insights
Older age, chronic disease, and travel history increase COVID-19 mortality risk in Africa. Central and West Africa locations were also associated with higher mortality rates for coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Diseases
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, spread globally, with Africa facing significant projections of devastation.
- Limited regional data exists on predictors of COVID-19 mortality in Africa.
- This study addresses the need for understanding risk factors for COVID-19 mortality within the African continent.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify independent risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality among patients in Africa.
- To provide data for targeted public health interventions and regional strategies.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 1028 confirmed COVID-19 cases from Africa with known survival outcomes.
- Utilized an open-access individual-level worldwide COVID-19 database.
- Employed multivariable logistic regression to determine independent predictors of mortality.
Main Results:
- Older age (aOR 1.06), chronic disease (aOR 9.63), and travel history (aOR 2.44) were significantly associated with increased COVID-19 mortality.
- Locations in Central Africa (aOR 0.14) and West Africa (aOR 0.12) showed significant associations with mortality.
- The study included 432 females, with a median age of 50 years.
Conclusions:
- Older age, chronic disease, and travel history are key independent risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in Africa.
- Specific regions, Central and West Africa, were identified as having higher mortality risks.
- Prioritizing vulnerable populations and conducting further in-depth studies are recommended for effective regional responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
Background:
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China and later spread rapidly to other parts of the world, including Africa. Africa was projected to be devastated by COVID-19. There is currently limited data regarding regional predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the independent risk factors associated with mortality among patients with COVID-19 in Africa.
Methods:
A total of 1028 confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Africa with definite survival outcomes were identified retrospectively from an open-access individual-level worldwide COVID-19 database. The live version of the dataset is available at https://github.com/beoutbreakprepared/nCoV2019 . Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to determine the risk factors that independently predict mortality among patients with COVID-19 in Africa.
Results:
Of the 1028 cases included in study, 432 (42.0%) were females with a median (interquartile range, IQR) age of 50 (24) years. Older age (adjusted odds ratio {aOR} 1.06; [95% confidence intervals {95% CI}, 1.04-1.08]), presence of chronic disease (aOR 9.63; [95% CI, 3.84-24.15]), travel history (aOR 2.44; [95% CI, 1.26-4.72]), as well as locations of Central Africa (aOR 0.14; [95% CI, 0.03-0.72]) and West Africa (aOR 0.12; [95% CI, 0.04-0.32]) were identified as the independent risk factors significantly associated with increased mortality among the patients with COVID-19.
Conclusions:
The COVID-19 pandemic is evolving gradually in Africa. Among patients with COVID-19 in Africa, older age, presence of chronic disease, travel history, and the locations of Central Africa and West Africa were associated with increased mortality. A regional response should prioritize strategies that will protect these populations. Also, conducting a further in-depth study could provide more insights into additional factors predictive of mortality in COVID-19 patients.
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