Small-scaled association between ambient temperature and campylobacteriosis incidence in Germany

Campylobacteriosis is the leading bacterial cause of human diarrheal illness worldwide. Campylobacteriosis incidence exhibits seasonality and has been attributed to ambient temperature. However, the role of ambient temperature on campylobacteriosis remains poorly understood. To examine the impact of ambient temperature on local campylobacteriosis in Germany, weekly incidences on NUTS-3 level were analysed using a novel small-scaled approach, regression and time lags. Campylobacteriosis incidence correlated positively with temperatures between - 5 and 28 °C. The sigmoid regression model estimated an incidence increase of 0.52 per 5 °C temperature rise in the observation period. The weekly average of daily minimum temperature was most significant at a time lag of two weeks and showed the steepest incidence increase of 0.13 per 1 °C temperature increase in a temperature corridor of 5.1 to 12.2 °C. The impact of average minimum temperatures on campylobacteriosis incidence is crucial, likely to be indirect and especially relevant in the recent part of the infection chain. Vectors or human behaviour are presumably more directly linked with temperature than the pathogen's microbiology and should be examined. These variables outweigh the direct temperature-pathogen relationship when the whole chain of infection is considered. In the context of climate change, campylobacteriosis is likely to increase in Germany due to an increased temperature effect.