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Using environmental DNA and occupancy modelling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics.

Chad M Martel1, Michael Sutter1, Robert M Dorazio2

  • 1Department of Fisheries Biology, Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, USA.

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Summary

Environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys combined with dynamic occupancy modeling effectively resolve rangewide metapopulation dynamics. This approach revealed a stable equilibrium for the tidewater goby, driven by colonization and extinction rates.

Keywords:
Eucyclogobius kristinaeEucyclogobius newberryidynamic occupancy modelenvironmental DNAmetapopulation dynamicsmultiscale occupancyspatial occupancytidewater goby

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Environmental DNA (eDNA)

Background:

  • Metapopulation dynamics are crucial for understanding species persistence, especially for endangered species.
  • Rangewide assessments are challenging due to logistical constraints and detection biases.
  • Emergent technologies offer new possibilities for ecological monitoring.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the combined power of eDNA surveys and dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy modeling for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics.
  • To estimate extinction and colonization drivers for the endangered tidewater goby.
  • To assess the influence of spatial relationships on metapopulation dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys across 190 sites over two years (2016-2017) to generate rangewide site occupancy histories.
  • Developed and applied a novel dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model accounting for non-detection bias.
  • Analyzed eDNA data from 813 water samples to estimate occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities.

Main Results:

  • Rangewide site occupancy for the tidewater goby remained stable between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51).
  • Extinction (0.106) and colonization (0.085) probabilities were nearly equal, suggesting a dynamic equilibrium.
  • Colonization probability increased with more occupied neighbors and decreased with greater distance between occupied sites.

Conclusions:

  • eDNA surveys provide efficient rangewide distribution snapshots.
  • Occupancy modeling paired with eDNA data can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.
  • The study highlights the utility of integrated eDNA and modeling approaches for endangered species conservation.